On 29 October 2026, the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center published preliminary enrolment figures for fall 2026. Computer and information science enrolment at US four-year colleges fell 12.4% compared with a year earlier. Over the same period, total undergraduate enrolment rose 0.6%, so computer science is shrinking while the overall student body grows slightly.
The numbers
The decline shows up at every level of study:
- Computer science at four-year undergraduate level fell 12.4%.
- Computer science at two-year colleges fell 12.3%.
- Computer science at graduate level fell 10.4%.
- Health majors at four-year colleges grew 6.2%, and at two-year colleges they grew 4.3%.
- Total undergraduate enrolment grew 0.6%, while master's enrolment fell 3.7%.
Higher Ed Dive adds that engineering and health professional degrees each grew by more than 6% at undergraduate level, while visual and performing arts fell by more than 4%. These are early numbers. According to Higher Ed Dive, they are based on responses from 46% of the colleges that report to the Clearinghouse, covering about 7.9 million students, so the final figures could move a little.
Why it is happening
The Clearinghouse itself does not name a cause. Its senior research director, Matthew Holsapple, told Higher Ed Dive that computer science led years of strong growth before reversing last fall, and that this year the drop is even more pronounced. That makes fall 2026 the second year of decline.
Reporters point to the job market. Higher Ed Dive cites Federal Reserve Bank of New York figures showing unemployment of 7% for recent computer science graduates and 7.8% for recent computer engineering graduates in 2024. It also points to tech layoffs and the rise of AI coding tools. These are plausible explanations, but they come from reporting and outside data, and the Clearinghouse has not said that AI is the reason.
This has happened before
After the dot-com crash in the early 2000s, US computer science enrolment fell for several years as students saw fewer jobs. It then climbed back to record highs in the 2010s, once demand for software returned in a new form. A similar pattern could repeat, with the next wave of demand built around people who work well with AI tools.
What it means for employers and students
For employers, a smaller pipeline of computer science graduates in a few years could make technical talent harder to find again, especially if companies cut junior roles now. A drop in first-year students today turns into fewer graduates around 2029 and 2030, because degrees take several years to finish. For students and career changers, the growth in health and engineering suggests people are choosing fields where demand feels steadier. Our view is that coding skills keep their value when they sit next to deep knowledge of a field, because AI makes that combination more useful.
What to do this week
If you hire, look at your junior roles and write down how a new starter would learn the job alongside AI tools, so the role keeps its training value. If you are studying or retraining, consider pairing technical skills with a field such as health, finance or marketing. And whatever your job, practise checking AI-written work, because reviewing output is becoming a core skill. For a related look at how large employers are reshaping teams, read Microsoft's voluntary exit offer, and start building practical AI skills in Learn.